President Prabowo Subianto has initiated a sweeping reorientation of Indonesia’s economic strategy. His early months in power have been marked by ambitious reforms, state asset consolidation, and aggressive social spending —moves that have garnered both international attention and domestic controversy.
While these measures underscore the administration’s commitment to national self-sufficiency and economic expansion, they also present a complex and rapidly shifting environment for foreign investors.
With about seven weeks of active campaigning left in the Philippine Presidential election, it is appearing more likely that Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will become the next President of the Republic of the Philippines. With this in mind, it is appropriate to begin to exert some foresight into the basic economic directions of an incoming Marcos administration.
This is not a day-by-day prediction of events, but rather a look at the strategic trends exposed by a new administration in Washington and the economic and public health events of 2020.
Security and stability is good for business and ends the political gridlock distracting the government. Even the threat of US sanctions seems to be receding. New law also makes China feel more secure about Hong Kong.
When viewed with discipline and long-term perspective, the façade of complexity fades and actually presents a clear, straight-forward set of decision criteria that will allow financial institutions to make an informed decision relating to their engagement in Hong Kong.
Like financially and politically charged bankruptcies anywhere in the world, the Hanjin Philippines bankruptcy will move through the usual fog of accounting, regulatory, and legal complexities. But it is rare that such a bankruptcy is fraught with the global geo-political implications that underlie the Hanjin Philippines bankruptcy at Subic Bay.
The 2019 Indonesian election/leadership process, and its result, will offer compelling insights, guidelines and pathways into future Indonesian business, finance, culture and politics.
Duterte also has a four-month track record as President that is worth looking at before making a complete judgment about investment or other transactions in the Philippines. That track record is much more stable and positive than his rhetoric might suggest.
Duterte’s sharp criticisms of the US have piqued concerns in Washington. But the trajectory for the Philippines is not nearly as concerning as Duterte’s unsettling rhetoric might suggest. And Duterte’s “pivot” toward China is neither radical nor surprising.
Where Donald Trump built his public image and practiced these behaviors in the highly synthetic, controlled and contrived world of Reality TV, Rodrigo Duterte has a real life track record and point of view that offer investors, businessmen and governments key insights into what to expect from a Duterte led Philippines.
